O problema tuaregue

The recent outbreak of violence in northern Mali will have given governments across the Sahel with their own Tuareg populations pause for thought.

While regional attention has been diverted in recent years by the threat posed by Islamic militant groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Boko Haram, the Tuareg problem has never been resolved. With the arrival of thousands of refugees in neighbouring countries such as Burkina Faso and Mauritania, many are asking if conflict could spread.

In Mali's case, many seasoned observers knew it was just a matter of time before the long-standing Tuareg grievances - claims for regional development and independence - resurfaced. After a peace deal was worked out following the last rebellion of the ATNMC led by Ibrahim Ag Bahanga, many of those responsible seemed to simply vanish into the Sahara desert. Promises to integrate former fighters into the national army do not seem to have been fully implemented.

Some former rebels apparently turned up to fight on the side of Colonel Gaddaffi in Libya's recent conflict, although Gaddaffi's support for the Tuareg cause had been as idiosyncratic as his support for any other cause in Africa. The ferocity of the attacks in January 2012 by the newly-launched MNLA (National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad) - numbering several close associates of Bahanga (Bahanga was killed in a road accident in August 2011) - seems in part attributed to them bringing back weapons they obtained in Libya.

The situation is further complicated by the fear of involvement of AQIM, known to operate in the area around the Wagadou Forest in western Mali. Although the MNLA strenuously denied the accusations by the Malian government that AQIM had been involved in their operations, including an attack on Aguelhoc, their new rebellion was hot on the heels of the shocking abduction of four European tourists in Timbuktu in November, one of whom was killed when he resisted, and two Frenchmen in nearby Hombori. Exactly who carried out these kidnappings has never been clearly ascertained but the blurring of the lines only gives the MNLA rebellion a broader and more chilling context.

On a recent visit to neighbouring Niger, I heard from locals in Agadez, which has its own large Tuareg population, that they now live in fear of a repeat of Niger's own MNJ (Nigerien Movement for Justice) rebellion, which broke out around the same time as Bahanga's revolt in 2007. Back then there was much talk of links between the two groups, and national borders have seldom meant much to Tuaregs who have family connections across southern Algeria, Libya, northern Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. These fears certainly reached a head in September when one of the erstwhile leaders of the MNJ, Rhissa Ag Boula, was reportedly seen among the convoy which brought Saadi, the son of Colonel Gadaffi, to Agadez in northern Niger. And although the numbers are likely to be small, there is a strong suspicion that some of those currently in the MNLA in Mali are in fact Nigerien Tuareg.
Celeste Hicks, jornalista